Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models for precipitation simulation and prediction of future extreme precipitation in China

Using the CN05.1 dataset, evaluated the simulation abilities about 20 CMIP 6 models and investigated the changes of numbers of extreme precipitation indices which related to the consecutive wet days in seven regions of China. The variations between the future (2025-2100) and the history (1981-2014) have been investigated according to the ΔPII-CWD indices and the relationships between these indices and the R95p extreme precipitation index were analyzed under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios. Results showed that the multi-model ensemble (MME) results better reproduce the spatial distribution characteristics of annual average precipitation in China. The maximum consecutive wet days (CWD) were projected to be substantially longer in South China and Southwest China in the historical periods,  especially in Guangdong, the Sichuan Basin, and the other areas, exceeding 10d, and the precipitation intensity index (PII-CWD) were predicted to be higher in Central China, South China, and East China, with PII-CWD exceeding 10 mm/day. The multi-model ensemble mean predicted more severe and frequent extreme precipitation events during 2025–2100, and the greatest changes were projected to occur in Southwest China around 2070 and 2080. Overall, the projected pattern of extreme precipitation in North China is complex, whereas South China is expected to experience more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events in the future.