In the context of China's “dual-carbon” goal, digital financial inclusion plays an important role in agricultural carbon emission reduction. This paper analyzes the effect of digital financial inclusion on agricultural carbon emissions and its transmission mechanism based on provincial panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022. The results show that digital financial inclusion has a significant inhibitory effect on agricultural carbon emissions. In terms of the mechanism of action, digital financial inclusion can reduce agricultural carbon emissions through the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure. In addition, in the mechanism of digital financial inclusion affecting agricultural carbon emissions, there is a threshold effect, and only when rural human capital is higher than a certain threshold, digital financial inclusion can show the inhibiting effect on agricultural carbon emissions. Therefore, it should strengthen the multi-dimensional development of digital technology facilities, digital financial inclusion development and agricultural industrial structure upgrading to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture and comprehensively reduce agricultural carbon emissions, with a view to realizing the low-carbon and sustainable development of Chinese agriculture.