The Yellow River Basin is an important economic zone in China and an important base for energy, chemical, raw materials and basic industries. However, the sloppy development pattern of "high consumption and high pollution" in nine provinces along the Yellow River Basin has become an important obstacle to achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Using the extended STIRPAT model and combining scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to build a prediction model, the future trend of carbon emissions in the nine provinces of the Yellow River Basin was predicted and the optimal path to reach the peak of carbons in the Yellow River Basin was explored. The results show that the nine provincial areas in the Yellow River Basin will not be able to reach the carbon peaking before 2035 under the baseline scenario. By further comparing the carbon peaking conditions of provinces under the low-carbon scenario and the technology breakthrough scenario, it is found that the peaking time, carbon peak value and the number of provinces under the technology breakthrough scenario are significantly better than those under the low-carbon scenario. Under the technology breakthrough scenario, the energy efficiency of the nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin will be greatly improved, the innovation capacity will be significantly enhanced, and the synergistic emission reduction mechanism and related policies between provincial areas will be perfected. Technological breakthroughs will become an important engine for high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.