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Statistical downscaled local climate model for future rainfall changes analysis: A case study of Hyogo prefecture, Japan

Paper Topic: 
Environmental data analysis and modelling

Pages :
136 - 146

Corresponing Author: 
Kok Weng Tan
Ng P.Y. Tan K.W. Oishi S. Huang Y.F.
Paper ID: 
Paper Status: 
Date Paper Accepted: 
Paper online: 
Visual abstract: 

For decades, climate models have been used to understand the present and historical climates, especially global climate models (GCMs). They are used to understand the interaction between climate system processes and forecast future climates. However, the issue of low resolution and accuracy often lead to inadequacy in capturing the variations in climate variables related to impact assessment. In order to capture the local climate changes in Hyogo Prefecture of Western Japan, a local climate modelling based on Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was applied using the statistical downscaling technique. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenario were used in generating future climate models. The reliability of models was tested with Linear Regression, Pearson correlation, and Cronbach Alpha. Moderate relationship between rainfall data and both RCP scenarios was found in all chosen stations. Spatial analysis outcome showed that there is a possibility of increase in annual rainfall in Hyogo prefecture, where the increase is significant in Northern region. There is a possibility of increase in maximum and minimum temperature in four selected stations due to the increase of greenhouse gas emissions.

CanESM2, statistical downscaling, local climate model, Hyogo Prefecture, Japan