Future changes in the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in Eastern Mediterranean

The aim of this study is to estimate future potential changes in duration of extreme dry and
wet spells and rainfall intensity in Eastern Mediterranean. For this purpose, daily
precipitation amounts, deriving from the regional climate model of UK Hadley Centre
HadRM3P have been used for the present (1960-1990) and the future period 2070-2100 on
0.44° x 0.44° latitude by longitude grid. Future data are based on B2 IPCC emission
scenario.
For the identification of precipitation extremes three climatic indices were employed: a)
CWD (Maximum number of consecutive wet days), b) CDD (Maximum number of
consecutive dry days) and c) SDII (quotient of precipitation amount of wet days and the
number of wet days of the period). They were calculated for the present and future period,
on a seasonal and annual basis.
A general future tendency was found towards drier Eastern Mediterranean, with reduced
rainfall intensity. Longer dry spells are expected in all seasons, except autumn, with the
largest increase in the southern part of the area. Extreme wet spells will shorten everywhere
during all seasons, except autumn. Precipitation intensity was found reduced for all seasons
and mostly for summer in South Aegean Sea.