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GFIS (Geographic Forecasting Information System): A Case Study in Water Resources Management

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Pages :
57 - 63

Pagourtzi E., Nikolopoulos K. and Assimakopoulos V.
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The current study presents the development of a Forecasting Information System for geographic data
(cross-sectional time-series for different geographic regions). GFIS, Geographic Forecasting
Information System, was developed with MS Visual Basic (User Interface), ArcView (GIS) and MS
Access (DBMS) during the MSc thesis of one of the authors in 2000.
GFIS is suitable for the management and forecasting for all time-series that present a geographic
dimension and can be illustrated in a Geographical Information System (GIS). The forecasting capabilities
of the system extend from classical time-series extrapolation methods (exponential smoothing,
regression) (Assimakopoulos, 1994) to more complex methods (Theta model).
The applicability of the system was tested with a case study in Water Resources Management. GFIS
was used in order to create rainfall forecasts for the watersheds in Lakonia, a region in southern
Greece. The estimation, forecasting, planning and management of hydrological resources are of great
importance and prerequisite for sustainable development.

Time-series, forecasting, Theta model, GIS, rainfall, hydrological resource