EVALUATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION UNDER RCPs SCENARIOS IN NORTHERN GREECE

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important component in water resources, agricultural and environmental modeling, thus its assessment is critical in understanding the impacts of climate change on the sector of agriculture. In this study, the effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in Northern Greece, was assessed. For this purpose, the climate change scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 based on four Earth System Models (ESMs) CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES and IPSL-CM5A-LR were used for the time periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 and for the baseline period (1981-2000). Reference evapotranspiration was estimated with the use of the FAO Penman-Monteith equation. Results showed that mean annual ETo is projected to increase in response to climate change during 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 according to the four ESMs with the greater increase predicted by the end of the 21st century. The increase in ETo is driven mainly by the temperature rise and secondly by the solar radiation increase in the future. The results indicate that the development of adaptation strategies is necessary for the improvement of agricultural water management and the reduction of climate change impacts on agriculture.